Friday, September 16, 2011

A See-saw of Democracy

Black swan(book i'm now reading) is quite difficult to understand, especially for someone like me whose only knowledge of philosophy is limited to the syllabus i studied in the moral science books during my school years .I wonder if moral science is categorized under philosophy, because all i remember reading in those books are anecdotes describing how good deeds are rewarded, how to imbibe good values within oneself........ etc,etc.
While reading The Black Swan i came across two philosophy terms-Mediocristan and Extremistan,which i am proud to claim to have understood them(at least superficially). Black Swan illustrates Mediocristan as "When the sample is large no significant instance will significantly change the aggregate or total". Mediocristan refers to the Indian middle and lower class  which outnumber the remaining and overrule any singular event which is executed with an intention to impact the masses in a bad/good way. In other words the effect imposed by any element which lie outside the periphery of Mediocritanism is very subtle and can be easily mitigated by the masses which have major contribution to overall average.For example, events  like 26/11 which was a singular and major event perpetrated to destabilize the nation did not have lasting effect as they(perpetrators) had wished for, after a couple of days of mourning the entire city of Mumbai got back to its daily routine,this is where Mediocristanism played its part.
Extremistan is exactly opposite. According to the book "In extremistan, inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate ".Best example of Extremistan is Indian government's yesterdays decision to increase the fuel price, this although a singular event had a huge impact on the aggregate i.e Indian public.Another example is 9/11 ,a singular event but had enormous after effects resulting an altogether shift in paradigm as far as issue like security is concerned.
One positive trait of any democratic nation is its ability to switch between Extremistan and Mediocristan attitude.For instance, when it comes to increase in fuel prices we adapt to extremistanism and accept that  increase in price was done out of necessity owing to decrease in rupee's value as opposed to dollar.We allow the price hike to affect us until we get used to it and the new rate of Rs.71.83 per litre becomes a new normal.
But when it comes to social/security issues -Mediocrity rules.I have already explained how we switched over to mediocritism when dealing with 26/11 after math.But what about issues like corruption,which side do we switch to?Remember the Lokpal saga?, when Anna Hazare protested for the Lokpal Bill we switched over to Extremistan and collectively made ourselves vulnerable to be impacted by this singular event(Anna's 15 days fast).When government made a blunder by arresting Anna,which was against the basic rights offered by constitution we felt the unbalance created by the governement between mediocristan and extremistan.This aggravated the scale of protest and government had no option but to relent before Mediocristan.Mediocristan Rules!.
My point is, democracy is like a game of see-saw between Mediocristanism and Extremistanism where the people have to be aware of the issues they are facing and not allow any trivial issues to affect them.Also they should switch over between these two categories wisely for the purpose of greater good.
   

Friday, September 9, 2011

Going Shopping? Beware of the Decoy

'Dilemma', that's the state a marketing person always tries to infuse inside the mind of a customer. "What should i select?All the options sound reasonable" this is the question every salesperson awaits to hear from his customer.Cause once he gets hold of customer's mind swirling around all the reasonable options presented before them he easily manipulates their mind to focus on one specific option which he(the marketing guy) wishes to sell, which i bet he does and at the same time receives an appreciation from his customer for ushering them out of the mess and helping them select the best option on the table.Little does the humble customer know that they have fallen prey to a very simple but efficient marketing technique---THE DECOY EFFECT.
Decoy effect works on basic principle of comparison , we humans have a tendency to compare everything.When it  comes to buying a product we compare it in terms of price,quantity and quality.
fig.1
fig.2
Suppose the customer is confused between two products,lets say A and B.Both have same attributes in inverse proportions(refer fig.1) which makes them quite appealing and reasonable.But the sales-guy is interested in selling you product A.Now that the customer is in confused state weighing both the products 50:50,the salesperson from his arsenal of marketing weapons deploys a decoy.He simply slides on the table another option --product A- .This product has a lower grade in terms of attribute as compared to other two products(A and B) but most importantly it is similar to product A(refer fig.2). Introduction of A- on the table makes comparison of A and A- simple (which the customer was in need of) and concludes that A is not only better than A- but also better than B.
At the end of the day, the salesperson sells what he was supposed to and the customer buys what he thought he deserved thus concluding the entire transaction on a happier note. UNLESS.................Unless the customer stumbles upon the decoy effect and realizes what an ass he was succumbing to the dilemma and leaving his instincts bare open to be manipulated by a sales-guy!!!.       
  

Friday, September 2, 2011

Making the right choice

How good are we at making choices?.Are they rational enough to lead you to a desirable conclusion?
Well, at the end of the day if we get the thing we want, in the state we want we say the choice we made was right.If we end up getting an undesired result we think our choice has not been rational enough or the choice we made was perfect but some other unintended factors tucked their heads out and altered the path of the result which was heading our way.
Ok, to get to the point the reason why i'm babbling about decision making stuff is because i happen to read a book on behavioral economics--Predictably Irrational. BTW Behavioral Economics has nothing to do with the stock market or the bond market or any other kind of monetary jargon and can easily be understood by anyone.As every other behavioral economics book this one also digs into thought process of decision making but not so deep so as to enter its philosophical aspect. Rather it studies the external parameters which affect this decision, varies them(the parameters) freakishly until the decision-maker takes a u-turn and selects an option which previously sounded completely irrational or in some cases never even thought of.
Here are some books I've read/reading/to read on the same subject:

      
  FREAKONOMICS
 This one's a best-seller written by an economist who hates maths! and digs deep into massive amount of data to
find a hidden parameter which acts as a decisive factor in the entire transaction.











SUPERFREAKNOMICS
 This book is sequel to Freaknomics, contains more anecdotes supported by the data posing crazy questions like-Can Kangaroos save the planet!!!





So go ahead, grab one of these and learn to make choices the right way!

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